SEC石油储量替代率预测方法探讨  

Forecasting methods of SEC reserves replacement rate

作　　者：魏萍[1] 张玲[1] 翟中喜[1] 肖席珍[1] 郭鸣黎 

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《石油实验地质》2013年第6期702-706,共5页Petroleum Geology & Experiment

基　　金：中国石化2012年度上市油气储量评估及结果分析研究(G5800-12-ZS-YTB75)资助

摘　　要：储量替代率是反映石油公司经营状况特别是可持续发展潜力的重要指标,也是石油公司合理制定年度计划的重要依据和考核各分公司的重要指标。由于受很多不确定因素的影响,对储量替代率的准确预测难度很大。介绍了SEC储量替代率的内涵和特点,从SEC储量变化构成特点探讨了SEC储量替代率预测方法,即通过预测年度的"扩边及新发现"新增储量、"老区提高采收率"增加可采储量和"修正"储量这三部分的储量,进而预测SEC储量替代率。该方法具有简单、可操作性强的特点。利用该方法对2011年某油田的SEC储量替代率进行了预测和验证,并讨论了影响SEC储量替代率指标预测结果的4个主要因素。The reserve replacement rate is an important reflection of the management state of oil companies, es- pecially in sustainable development. It is also an important indicator for oil companies to make annual plan and an important basis for branch company assessment. Because of many uncertain factors, it is very difficult to predict the reserve replacement rate. The connotation and characteristics of the SEC reserve replacement rate have been in- troduced in this paper, through forecasting three parts of the reserves, which include the annual ＂boundary exten- ding and new discovery of new reserves＂, ＂increasing recoverable reserves＂ and ＂correction＂ reserves. Then the SEC reserve replacement rate has been predicated. The method is simple and easy to operate. It has been applied in some oilfield to predict the SEC reserve replacement rate for the year 2011. Four main affecting factors for SEC reserves replacement rate have been discussed.

关 键 词：SEC储量替代率预测 储量构成 影响因素 

分 类 号：TE01[石油与天然气工程]