基于统计降尺度法的青藏高原东部地区未来气候变化预估  

Projection for Climate Change of the Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Based on the Statistical Downscaling Method

作　　者：杨淑群[1,2] 杨小波[1,2] 游泳[2] 邱予声 汪兰 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [2]四川省气候中心,成都610072 [3]四川省大邑县气象局,四川大邑611300 [4]四川省泸州市气象局,四川泸州646000

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第11期147-156,共10页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41075066)"青藏高原东部生态区水资源状况及其与气候变化的联系";(41275097)"华西秋雨年际变化规律及其形成机理研究";四川省气象局"四川省月尺度滑坡泥石流预报技术及其业务应用的共同资助

摘　　要：采用PCA与逐步线性回归相结合的统计降尺度方法,利用HadCM3模式的SRES A2排放情景资料,对青藏高原东部地区未来2011-2049年气候变化趋势进行了预估,得到如下结论:经过统计降尺度处理后的HadCM3对高原东部地区1961-1990年气温、降水模拟结果与实况特征基本相符.从2011-2049年相对于1961-1990年气候平均值来看,未来整个青藏高原东部地区年平均气温将上升1.8℃,其中青海高原将上升2.0℃,川西高原将上升1.4℃;未来整个青藏高原东部地区年降水量将增加5.0%,其中青海高原将增加2.2%,川西高原将增加7.8%.未来青海高原年平均径流量将出现减少趋势,川西高原径流量将出现增加趋势,其中未来黄河上游源区年平均径流量将持续减少,雅砻江下游地区径流量将持续增加,而长江上游源区和雅砻江上游地区年平均径流量将经历减少→增多→减少的趋势.Based on the HadCM3 SRES A2 data sets, the tendency of future climatic changes over the east-ern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in the next 40 years （2011-2049） is projected, using the statistical downscal- ing method, which combines PCA （principal component analysis） and stepwise linear regression. The resuits are as follows. Firstly, both the simulated downscaled temperature and precipitation are consistent with the actual observations. Secondly, compared with the average temperature of 1961-1990, the annual- mean temperatures in 2011-2049 would rise by 1.8℃, 2.0 ℃, 1.4℃ over the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Qinghai Plateau, and the western Sichuan Plateau, respectively, and the annual precipitation would increase by 5.0% over the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, by 2.2% over the Qinghai Plateau, and by 7.8% over the western Sichuan Plateau. Thirdly, the annual-mean runoff over the Qinghai Plateau would take on an obviously decreasing trend; in contrast, that over the western Sichuan Plateau would dis- play a significantly increasing trend. In more detail, the annual-mean runoff in the source of the Yellow River would steadily decrease, while that in the lower reaches of the Yalong River would maintain a steady increase. However, the annual-mean runoff in the sources of the Yangtze and the Yalong Rivers would decrease first, then increase, and finally decrease.

关 键 词：青藏高原 气候变化 降尺度 径流量 预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]