基于灰色建模思想估计修正指数曲线模型参数的方法  

A METHOD TO ESTIMATE MODIFIED INDEX CURVE MODEL PARAMETERS BASED ON THE GREY MODELING

作　　者：张军[1] 吕雄[1] 姚贵平[1] 白树叶[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学理学院,呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《内蒙古农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第5期156-160,共5页Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：内蒙古农业大学基础学科科研启动基金项目(jc2011004)

摘　　要：利用修正指数曲线模型进行模拟和预测时,首先要解决模型参数的估计问题.本文指出修正指数曲线模型参数估计的传统方法存在的局限性,通过分析修正指数曲线模型建模的数据特征,根据灰色系统建模估计参数的方法,提出了基于灰色建模思想估计修正指数曲线模型参数的方法,并经过数据实验证明了该方法的有效性和实用性.When modified index curve model is used to do simulating and forecasting, the first problem to solve is to estimate the model parameters. The limitation of the traditional method to estimate parameter has been pointed out in this paper. According to ana- lyze data features of modified index curve model and the method of estimating parameters in the grey system modeling , a method to es- timate modified index curve model parameters based on the grey modeling has been put forward in this paper. And the validity and practicability of the method has been proved by data experiment.

关 键 词：修正指数曲线模型 参数估计 相对误差 灰色建模 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]