基于EPPAC模型的非化石能源发展情景  

Non-fossil fuel development scenarios based on the EPPAC model

作　　者：刘嘉[1] 段茂盛[2] 张建宇 杨帆[4] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084 [3]美国环保协会中国项目,北京100007 [4]中国电力企业联合会,北京100761

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第9期1294-1299,共6页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家"九七三"重点基础研究项目(2010CB955504)

摘　　要：为研究非化石能源在中国未来电力行业发展中的作用,建立了中国电力政策评价模型(electric power policy assessment model for China,EPPAC)。在对未来电力需求和非化石能源发电装机进行情景设计的基础上,对非化石能源在中国电力行业发展中的作用及其2020年发展目标核算的敏感性进行了分析,指出未来实现非化石能源发展目标所面临的困难及不确定性。结果表明:在政策情景下,2020年非化石能源在电力行业的应用按火电供电煤耗核算将达到7.1亿tce,在一次能源消费的占比将达到14.8%;而在水电与核电发展减速的情景下,为达到相同非化石能源占比,需将2020年风力发电装机容量增至310GW,或将太阳能发电增至220GW,这将分别是其"十二五"规划目标的1.7和8.7倍。The electric power policy assessment model for China （EPPAC） was developed to study the role of non-fossil fuel use in China＇s power sector. The model was used with several scenarios for future electricity demand and installed capacities of non-fossil fuel power plants to study the role of non-fossil fuels in the development of China＇s power sector. The results also indicated the sensitivity of meeting the development target in 2020, indicating the difficulties and uncertainties of achieving the future non fossil fuel development target. The results show that the non-fossil fuels in the power sector will amount to 0.71 billion tones of coal equivalent in 2020 under the policy scenario, which is 14.8% of the country＇s primary energy consumption with the scenario having decelerated hydro and nuclear, to achieve the same share, the installed wind power capacity needs to be increased to 310 GW or the solar power capacity needs to he increased to 220 GW, which will be 1.7 and 8.7 times their planned targets in the 12th five year plan.

关 键 词：中国电力政策评价模型(EPPAC) 非化石能源 火电供电煤耗 一次能源消费 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]