中国2030年CO_2排放总量预测研究  

Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions in China by 2030

作　　者：韩国刚[1] 刘晓宇[2] 宋鹭[1] 韩振宇[3] 陈忱[2] 苏艺[1] 杜啸岩[1] 蔡梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境工程评估中心,北京100012 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [3]北京博奇电力公司,北京100022

出　　处：《电力科技与环保》2013年第6期1-3,共3页Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection

基　　金：环境保护部环境工程评估中心科研项目(中国2030年人口;经济;能源环境和谐发展与节能减排战略研究)

摘　　要：我国2005年和2010年CO2排放总量分别为55亿t和81.52亿t,"十五"和"十一五"期间年均增长率分别为11.0%和8.0%。中国2011-2015年、2016-2020年、2021-2025年和2026-2030年GDP年均增长率分别为8%、7%、6%、5%的经济发展模式与对应的能源消费弹性系数分别为0.5、0.5、0.4和0.3的能源发展模式,预测2030年燃煤、燃油和天然气CO2排放量及全国CO2排放总量。提出减少CO2排放总量对策,主要包括:调整能源结构,尽量减少煤炭消费量占能源消费总量的比例,增加石油、天然气和新能源的比例,提高CO2综合利用率,完善CO2管理政策与法律法规等。The total CO2 emission in China amounted to 5..5 billion tonnes and 8. 152 billion tonnes in 2005 and 2010, respectively,and the annual percentage growth rate during the tenth and eleventh five -year plan period reached 1!% and 8% on the average. The report provides a forecast of the total CO2 emissions in China and the emissions coming from fossil fuel combustion such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas by 2030, based on the economic scenario that annual GDP growth keeps a rate of 8% ,7% ,6% ,5% during the periods of 2011 -20]5, 2.016 -2020,2021 -2025, and 2026 -2030 and the energy projection that elasticity coefficient of energy consump- tion shows at 0.5,0..5,0.4,0.3. It is concluded that measures are recommended to taken to realize carbon re- duction, including adjusting energy structure, reducing the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption, increasing the consumption of petroleum, natural gas and new energy, improving the CO2 utilization efficiency, and enhancing the regulatory system on CO2 management.

关 键 词：CO2排放总量 能源消耗量 CO2综合利用率 

分 类 号：X701.7[环境科学与工程—环境工程]