2001-2011年江西省生态足迹分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of the Ecological Footprint of Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2011

作　　者：习勤[1] 张春[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《价值工程》2013年第36期10-12,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：本文利用生态足迹模型、相关分析以及灰色预测模型对江西省的生态足迹进行分析。结果表明:2011年江西省的人均生态足迹比2001年增加了68.05%,为2.2366hm2/人;生态足迹与GDP、城镇化、居民消费水平及人口的相关系数均在0.94以上;预测得2012年江西人均GDP生态足迹为3659.247hm2,2019年为1798.4273hm2,即未来江西发展的不可持续状态将逐步得到改善。This paper uses the ecological footprint model, correlation analysis and gray prediction model to analyze the ecological footprint of Jiangxi Province. The results show that： compared with 2001, in 2011, the per capita ecological footprint of Jiangxi province is 2.2366hm2/person and increased by 68.05%; all of the ecological footprint, GDP, urbanization, the level of consumption and the correlation coefficients of population are above 0.94. By predicting, in 2012, the per capita GDP ecological footprint of Jiangxi is 3659.247 hm2, 2019 is 1798.4273hm2, and the unsustainable situation of future development in Jiangxi will be gradually improved.

关 键 词：生态足迹 相关分析 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]