基于MC的不同能见度下港口交通系统风险分析  

The Risk Analysis of Port Traffic System under Different Visibility Based on MC

作　　者：王健华[1] 胡甚平[1] 张锦朋[1] 轩少永[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海船舶运输科学研究所学报》2013年第4期57-61,共5页Journal of Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute

基　　金：上海海事大学校基金项目(20120057);广东省交通运输厅科技项目(201202004)

摘　　要：为加强船舶的安全管理,提高港口交通事故风险控制能力,在确定对应风险概率分布的基础上,通过采用蒙特卡洛方法,建立在不同能见度下的风险仿真模型。经过对仿真结果的分析处理,得出模型的平均风险值曲线。通过比较不同能见度下的离散风险值,拟合出一定范围内的连续风险曲线。实例表明,仿真模型能很好地反映港口交通风险的趋势,这为不同能见度下的港口航行提供了理论依据,也为相关海事管理部门提供了良好的决策平台。In order to strengthen the ship＇s safety management, and improve risk control of port traffic. In this paper, determining the probability distribution to the risk, established risk simulation model under different visibility by Monte Carlo. After analysis of the results of the simulation, the mean risk distribution curve is obtained. Through compare the discrete result under different visibility, fitting a range of continuous risk curve. The example proves that the simulation model can better reflect risk trend of port traffic and can provide theory basis for sea voyage under different visibility and maritime management departments are supported a good platform for decision-making.

关 键 词：风险控制 蒙特卡洛 概率分布 能见度 仿真 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U656.5[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]