GM(1,1)模型在大开间图书馆流量预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) Model in Circulation Forecast of Big-Width-Library

作　　者：张明霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学物理工程学院,山东曲阜273165

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第23期80-84,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目资助(10DTQJ01)

摘　　要：首次将GM(1,1)模型用于预测大开间图书馆的书本流量.详细阐述了GM(1,1)模型的建立,及其对大开间图书馆借阅流量的预测.预测结果与真实情况具有良好的一致性,可信度较高.这一工作将对大开间图书馆的借阅量评估起到良好的指导作用,同时也是图书馆设计以及其馆藏量评估的重要参照.This paper firstly adopted GM （1, 1） model to forecast the book circulation rate of a big-width-library by its previous circulation records. The establishment of GM （1, 1） model is explained clearly and its application example for forecasting the book circulation rate of a big-width-library is described in detail. The forecast result turns out to be objective and accurate. This work is useful to estimating the borrowing of this big-width-library and provides an important reference for library collection and design.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 流量预测 大开间图书馆 

分 类 号：G252[文化科学—图书馆学]