突发事件下选择应急方案的风险决策方法  

Risk decision analysis method for emergency plan selection

作　　者：李仕峰[1] 杨乃定[1] 张云翌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710129

出　　处：《控制与决策》2013年第12期1859-1863,共5页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171162)

摘　　要：针对突发事件应急方案选择问题,提出一种考虑决策者行为因素的混合多属性风险决策方法.首先,分析归纳突发事件应急方案选择问题决策信息结构的基本特征;然后,引入前景理论中的价值函数,通过将备选方案两两比较和基元情景交叉判断的方式计算方案各属性的前景价值,并运用二元语义模型计算各方案的综合价值,据此确定方案排序;最后,通过算例研究表明了所提出方法的有效性和可行性.A hybrid multi-attribute risk decision analysis method considering decision maker＇s behavioral factors is proposed to solve the emergency plan selection problem. Firstly, basic paradigms of decision information structures of the problem are induced. Then, the value function of prospect theory is applied to calculate the prospect value of each alternative property under the thought of pair-wise comparison of choice schemes and cross judgment of basic situations. Furthermore, the overall value of each plan is calculated to determine a ranking of alternatives based on the two-tuple model. Finally, examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：应急方案选择 风险决策 行为因素 两两比较 交叉判断 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]