我国事故指标与经济社会发展指标多元回归分析  

Multiple regression analysis on occupational safety and economic and society in China

作　　者：赵代英[1,2] 何学秋[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]天津理工大学环安学院,天津300384 [3]华北科技学院,北京101601

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2013年第10期66-70,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：以安全生产相对指标工矿商贸十万就业人员生产安全事故死亡率为研究对象,通过文献调研分析,最终从经济发展、经济发展结构、经济活动水平和社会活动水平角度筛选出14个指标为观察对象,采用逐步多元回归分析法筛选出影响我国安全生产的主要经济社会发展指标为:第三产业增加值产值占GDP比重、第三产业就业人数占总就业人数的比重和固定资产投资增长速度,并建立了回归模型。应用弹性系数法对主要影响因素进行重要性排序,并推测工矿商贸就业人员十万人事故死亡率将保持持续下降的趋势。The death rate of 105 practitioners of occupational accidents was taken as object of study. According to literature research and analysis, 14 economic and social indexes were chosen as observation objects from angles of economic development level, economic structure, economic activity level and social activity level. As result, the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in GDP, the proportion of the practitioners of the tertiary indus- try in total practitioners and the rate of increase in fixed assets investment were the main influence factors according to multiple regression analysis method and the regression model was established. The main influence factors were sorted by elasticity coefficient and it was speculated that the death rate of 105 practitioners of occupational accidents will supposedly keep falling trend.

关 键 词：安全生产 经济社会发展指标 多元逐步回归 弹性系数 

分 类 号：X915.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学]