基于DEA模型优化的城镇建设用地需求预测——以皖江城市带为例  

Prediction of Urban Construction Land based on Optimized Data by DEA:In Case of Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province

作　　者：黄金碧[1] 冯长春[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2013年第11期75-80,共6页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项之中部地区城市带发展土地保障与监管技术系统开发与示范项目(201111010):城市带土地空间规划技术研究(201111010-04)

摘　　要：不同经济社会发展阶段生产要素配置关系不同,只有以生产要素合理配置时的用地需求作为预测基数,才能确保用地规模适度发展.运用数据包络分析法和多元回归分析法,分析皖江城市带2006～ 2011年城镇建设用地利用有效性,并以优化后的样本预测城镇建设用地需求.结论如下：（1）皖江城市带城镇建设用地产出效益较差,多数地区处于规模报酬递减阶段,建设用地存在过剩;（2）运用DEA优化后的样本建立用地需求预测模型,拟合效果好,利于控制建设用地无序扩展;（3）皖江城市带城镇建设用地需求增速将放缓,合肥、安庆等地城镇建设用地利用效率高,经济社会发展需新增建设用地支撑;滁州、马鞍山等地城镇建设用地利用粗放,应注重挖掘存量用地利用潜力.Allocation relationship between production factors differs in different stages. Only to predict urban construction land demand based on rational allocation of production factors achieving the Pareto optimal can ensure the scale of urban construction land moderate development and promote urban construction land conservative and intensive use. This paper took Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province as an example to analyze the efficiency of urban construction land use, optimize the urban construction land use and predict its demand in the future. It concluded that the efficiency of urban construction land use was not very good and there was a certain urban construction land surplus. Forecasting model for urban construction land constructed by the optimized data fits well and can help to control urban sprawl. Overall, the urban construction land demand of Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province will decrease and the demand differs in different regions. Hefei, Anqing with high urban construction land use efficiency need new urban construction land to support their development, while Chuzhou, Maanshan with relatively extensive land use need to optimize stock urban construction land use to support their development.

关 键 词：城镇建设用地 预测 DEA 皖江城市带 

分 类 号：F061.6[经济管理—政治经济学]