2003-2011年中国粮食增产的贡献因素分析  

Investigating contribution factors to China's grain output increase in period of 2003 to 2011

作　　者：刘忠[1] 黄峰[1] 李保国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院农业部华北耕地保育重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2013年第23期1-8,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2013QJ059);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD05B02);国家自然科学基金项目(41271532)

摘　　要：理清2003年以来中国粮食产量增加的主要贡献因子及其贡献率,对于及时调整农业政策,保持和提升粮食生产能力有重要的意义。该文利用2003-2011年中国粮食及其各构成品种(根据国家统计局,粮食作物包括稻谷、小麦、玉米、薯类、豆类和其他谷物)的产量和播种面积数据,采用贡献因素分解的研究方法,研究了2003年以来中国粮食增产的作物和地区贡献,以及面积、单产和种植结构调整对于粮食增产的贡献率,并对各增产主力省区和主要粮食作物的增产贡献因素进行了分析,划定了增产主导类型。结果显示:研究期粮食增产全部来自3大粮食作物,其中玉米贡献了一半以上的增产量;杂粮、豆类和薯类总产均出现下降,其播种面积则分别下降了25.7%、17.4%和8.2%。地区贡献以黑龙江和河南最为突出,累积贡献率超过1/3;累积贡献率超过90%的13个省区,除新疆外其余都是粮食主产省区。作为传统农区的四川,其粮食增产贡献率仅为1.6%,与山西、陕西和甘肃等非主产区基本相当;全国粮食增产的面积贡献率最大,达到46.3%,其次是单产贡献率(44.2%),结构调整的贡献率将近10%,其中一半以上来自豆类向稻谷和玉米的调整;稻谷、玉米和春小麦的增产为面积主导型,而冬小麦的增产为单产和面积共同作用型;除河南和安徽为单产主导型,吉林和河北为面积单产共同作用型,其他增产主力省区的增产类型均为面积主导型。综合来看,2003-2011年中国粮食增产是以面积增加主导的外延式增产方式。由于粮食消费结构和国际粮食贸易容量的限制,今后结构调整的潜力已经很小。因此,在稳定粮食播种面积的基础上,进一步提高粮食作物的单产水平是今后稳定和提高粮食生产能力的重要举措。研究结果可为今后农业政策的调整提供决策依据。China＇s grain output has continued to increase since 2003. Identifying contributing and driving factors and quantifying their contribution rates to the increase of grain output（IGO） will help to make a correct agriculture policy to maintain or improve the grain production capacity. Using the statistics of outputs, sown areas,and yield（output of per unit sown area） of grain production and its composition crops（i.e. rice, maize, wheat,soybeans, tubers, and minor cereals according to National Bureau of Statistics of China）, this paper analyzed the contributors and their contribution rates to IGO from crops and regional aspects. Furthermore, an algorithm was constructed to divide driving factors into sown area, yield, and adjustment of grain structure. The driving types of IGO were delineated according to the contribution rate of sown areas and yield for regions and crops. The results showed that the IGO were all from rice, wheat, and maize, which were considered as high yield crops compared to other grain crops. The largest crop contributor was maize, with a contribution rate of more than 50%. The output of minor cereals, soybeans, and tubers all declined during the period of 2003-2011, with the reduction rate of25.7%, 17.4%, and 8.2% on sown areas for minor cereals, soybeans, and tubers respectively. Heilongjiang and Henan were the largest region contributors, whose cumulative contribution rate reached up to 35%. The top 13provinces with the cumulative contribution rate more than 90% were mostly the major grain-producing provinces,except for Xinjiang. As a traditional major grain producing province, the contribution rate of IGO in Sichuan was just 1.6%. This value was roughly in line with the values of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu, which were all non-major grain producing provinces. At the national scale, the sown area of grain was the strongest driving factor,with a contribution rate of 46.3%, followed by yield, contributing 44.2% to IGO. Adjustment of grain structure contributed the remaining 9.5%, mo

关 键 词：粮食 作物 生产 增产 贡献因素 单产 面积 结构调整 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]