旅游发展、门槛效应与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据  

Tourism Development,Threshold Effect and Economic Growth——Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：赵磊[1] 毛润泽[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]上海师范大学旅游学院,上海201418

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2013年第12期69-83,共15页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"新型城镇化视角下我国休闲旅游功能区发展模式与机制研究"(13CGL083)

摘　　要：本文运用以门槛回归为代表的非线性计量经济理论,借助拓展的门槛变量集,利用1999～2009年中国省际面板数据,采用面板门槛模型回归方法,实证检验了中国旅游发展对经济增长的非线性影响关系。研究结果表明,中国旅游发展对经济增长的影响关系显著存在基于门槛变量集的非线性门槛效应;当经济发展水平跨越最高门槛值时,旅游发展对经济增长的影响效应由于滞后性变得具有不确定性";STCs拥有较高经济增长率"假说在中国情境下得以验证;随着门槛变量处于不同发展阶段,旅游发展并非总对经济增长产生实质贡献。Based on the threshold regression of dynamic panel about the nonlinear econometric theory and the panel threshold re- gression estimation, this paper uses China＇s provincial panel data from 1999 to 2009 in order to confirm the nonlinear effect relation- ship on tourism development to economic growth in China. Research results show that there are nonlinear threshold effect between tourism development and economic growth based on threshold variables set. When economic growth crosses the maximum threshold, the effect of tourism development to economic growth becomes uncertain due to the lag. The hypothesis that small tourism countries grow significantly faster than the other sub-groups is verified in China. As the threshold variable changes in different stages of devel- opment, tourism development does not always contribute to economic growth.

关 键 词：旅游发展 门槛效应 经济增长 STCs 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]