基于状态空间模型的结构变迁效应研究  

A Study on the Structural Change Effect Based on State Space Model

作　　者：吴祥佑[1] 

机构地区：[1]闽江学院新华都商学院,福州350108

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2013年第6期57-64,共8页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：福建省教育厅2011年人文社会科学研究项目“海西多层次可持续农业保险发展模式研究”(JA11205S);闽江学院2011年社科启动项目“海峡两岸医疗健康保障体系比较研究”(YSQ1102)

摘　　要：基于状态空间模型对整体经济与三次产业C-D生产函数的拟合,获得了整体经济及三次产业全要素生产率的增长率、资本和劳动产出弹性的估计。结构变迁效应是结构变迁对经济增长的促进作用,可分解为对全要素生产率的增长率及要素贡献能力的影响,通过整体经济全要素生产率的增长率及要素贡献,与三次产业对应指标加权平均值的差来测度。实证结果表明,产业结构变迁对中国经济增长有促进作用,对全要素生产率和资本的贡献有递减的助推作用,对劳动的贡献有递减的抑制作用。Based on the Douglas production function fitting of state space model on China＇s whole economy and the Cobb - of China＇s three industries, the author gets the growth rates of the total factor productivity （TFP） of China＇s whole economy and the three industries, and the estimation of the elasticity of capital and labor output. Structural change effect is the promotion function of structural change on economic growth, and it can be decomposed into its influence on the growth rate of TFP and the contribution of factors. Structural change effect can be measured by the weigh- ted mean differences in the growth rate of TFP and factor contribution between China＇s whole econ- omy and its three industries. Empirical results show that industrial structural change can promote China＇s economic growth, help to reduce TFP and the contribution of capital, and restrict the de-crease of labor contribution.

关 键 词：经济增长 结构变迁效应 状态空间模型 TFP增长率 要素贡献 

分 类 号：F121[经济管理—世界经济]