农村还有多少有待转移的劳动力——对民工荒悖论的解释  

How Much Labor to be Transferred in Rural Areas——An Explanation for the Paradox of Migrant Worker Shortage

作　　者：陈书伟[1,2] 李永杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广州510006 [2]青海民族大学公共管理学院,西宁810007

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2013年第6期72-78,共7页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"青藏地区世居少数民族就业能力提升与社会稳定问题研究"(11YJC790017);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"藏区社会保障的特殊性研究--以青海藏区为例"(11XJC840002)

摘　　要：农村还有多少有待转移的劳动力?民工荒真的存在吗?其实质是什么?针对这些问题,基于C-D生产函数,通过构建新古典模型对农村有待转移的劳动力进行测算。结果是中国依然有12255.2万人农村劳动力有待转移到非农部门就业,包括近4000万人农村富余劳动力和8000多万人兼顾农业部门与非农部门就业的半转移状态劳动力。随着土地产权制度和土地流转交易制度的创新,土地流转速度加快和流转规模的扩大,农村还将释放出更大规模的可转移劳动力。研究认为:民工荒是一个悖论,并对这个悖论进行解释,从短期、中期与长期3个层面对做好农村劳动力转移的政策和制度安排给出建议。How much labor to be transferred in rural areas？ Does migrant worker shortage re-ally exist？ What is the essence？ To answer the questions, the paper measures the rural labor to be transferred by constructing a neoclassical model based on C - D production function. The result is that China still has 122. 552 million rural labor force to be transferred to non - agricultural sectors, including nearly 40 million surplus rural labor force and more than 80 million half - transferred la- bor who work both in agricultural and non - agricultural sectors. With the innovation of land prop-erty rights system and the system of land transfer transactions, the accelerating pace and the enlar-ging scale of land transfer and circulation, there will be more labor force to be transferred in rural areas. Based on this, the study argues that migrant worker shortage is a paradox, and some expla- nations are made to support the idea. Some recommendations on how to improve the policy and in-stitutional arrangement of rural labor transfer are proposed from the short - term, medium - term and long-term levels.

关 键 词：农村劳动力 劳动力转移 民工荒悖论 新古典模型 土地流转 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学]