Wavelet analysis of quasi-3-year temperature oscillations in China in last 50 years, and predicted changes in the next 20 years  

作　　者：ChengHai Wang Jian Li XiaoGuang Xu 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory for Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, College of Atmosphere Sciences, Lanzhou University

出　　处：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》2013年第6期755-766,共12页寒旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant Nos.41071028,41275061);the Public Benefit(Meteorology)Re-search Foundation of China(Grant No.GYHY201006035)

摘　　要：The wavelet analysis method is used to analyze the annual and winter temperature data of 98 observation stations in China in eight climate zones during the last 50 years （1961-2009）. The periodicities of temperature changes are investigated, and the possible temperature change trends in China in the next 20 years （2012-2029） are also predicted. Our results show that in the inter-annual temperature variability there are pervasive quasi-3- to quasi-4-year cycles, and these cycle changes are relatively steady. The periodic characteristics of the annual temperature changes are clearly different between northern and southern China, and our period superimposition extrapolation shows that both annual and winter temperatures in China will continue to increase in the next 20 years, more so in northern China and in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau （QXP） than in the southern region, except in the southwest. If temperatures follow historic increasing linear trends, the overall temper- ature is expected to increase by 1℃ between 2010 and 2029.The wavelet analysis method is used to analyze the annual and winter temperature data of 98 observation stations in China in eight climate zones during the last 50 years （1961-2009）. The periodicities of temperature changes are investigated, and the possible temperature change trends in China in the next 20 years （2012-2029） are also predicted. Our results show that in the inter-annual temperature variability there are pervasive quasi-3- to quasi-4-year cycles, and these cycle changes are relatively steady. The periodic characteristics of the annual temperature changes are clearly different between northern and southern China, and our period superimposition extrapolation shows that both annual and winter temperatures in China will continue to increase in the next 20 years, more so in northern China and in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau （QXP） than in the southern region, except in the southwest. If temperatures follow historic increasing linear trends, the overall temper- ature is expected to increase by 1℃ between 2010 and 2029.

关 键 词：climate regions in China temperature change period wavelet analysis temperature prediction 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]