我国利率、货币供应量对物价的传导效应研究  

Study on Transmission Effect of China's Interest Rate and Money Supply on Price

作　　者：王玉华[1,2] 陈宝卫[2] 冯波[2] 杨钊[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]中国人民银行淄博市中心支行,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2013年第11期8-13,共6页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：本文利用STR模型考察了我国2000—2011年间货币供应量、利率与物价间的关系。研究表明,货币供应量和利率对物价的影响都是非线性的,其中货币供应量的影响是正向的,而且在不同经济状态下影响程度不同,在高利率水平下影响更突出;利率低时对物价的影响是负向的,此时加息是治理通货膨胀的有效手段,但当利率水平过高时,受制于"成本渠道"效应的影响,提高利率将进一步加剧通胀压力。因此,央行调控物价时应充分考虑所处的经济状态,合理选择两种不同的调控方式,以取得预期调控效果。Abstract： This paper studies the relationship among money supply, interest rate and price in China from 2000 to 2011 by using STR model. The result shows that money supply and interest rate have always had a non-linear effect on price and the effect of money supply is positive. The level of impact is different under different economic environments. The impact is more significant when the interest rate is high. The impact of interest rate on price is nonlinear, too. But its impact is passive when the interest rate is low, so it is reasonable to raise interest rate to control inflation. Howev- er, when interest rate is very high and it is constrained by the effect of ＂cost channel＂, raising interest rate will further exacerbate the inflation pressure. Therefore, when regulating the price, the central bank should take the economic situ- ation into account and choose two kinds of regulatory instruments reasonably to control the price level as it is exnected.

关 键 词：利率 货币供应量 CPI STR模型 

分 类 号：F820.11[经济管理—财政学]