Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10-30 days in winter 2010 and 2011  

作　　者：王阔 封国林 曾宇星 汪栩加 

机构地区：[1]College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University [2]Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

出　　处：《Chinese Physics B》2013年第12期570-577,共8页中国物理B（英文版）

基　　金：Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430204);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40930952 and 41105070);the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China(Grant No.2012CB955902)

摘　　要：In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.

关 键 词：stable components climatological background coefficient of variance 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]