水利支撑经济社会发展能力评价指标体系构建及实证研究  

Establishment and empirical study of evaluation system of supporting capacity of water conservancy for socio-economic development

作　　者：马婷[1] 王乃岳[1] 

机构地区：[1]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水利经济》2013年第6期8-12,69,共5页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

摘　　要：按照目标层、准则层和指标层3个层次构建了水利支撑经济社会发展能力评价指标体系,选取了15个指标层指标。根据政府统计公报、国家相关规划目标、国际状况和有关分析研究结果确定了指标现值与标准值,运用系统工程理论中的层次分析法设计了指标权重分配,测算出中国水利支撑经济社会发展能力分值。结果表明,中国水利支撑经济社会发展能力处于支撑能力"一般"与"较高"等级的临界点,认为未来十年将是我国提升水利社会经济发展支撑能力的关键时期。The concept of 'Supporting capacity of water conservancy for socio-economic development ' refers to the extent the hat water conservancy can support the overall goal of regional development with the current technology,and it is mainly reflected by three sub-systems of economy, society and environment. An evaluation system of supporting capacity of water conservancy for socio-economic development is established according to three levels: target level,guideline level and index level. Fifteen indices are selected for this study. The current and standard values of the indices are determined based on the Statistical Bulletin of the Chinese Government, relevant national planning objectives, international situations and related analysis results,and the weights of the indices are designed by using the hierarchical analysis method of the theory of system engineering. The score of the supporting capacity of water conservancy for socio-economic development in China is calculated. The results show that the score of the supporting capacity of water conservancy for socioeconomic development in China is critical between 'common'and'relatively strong',indicating that the next ten years will be the crucial period for enhancing the supporting capacity of water conservancy for socioeconomic development in China.

关 键 词：水利支撑能力 指标体系 实证研究 等级评价 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]