经济驱动下的人口省际流动研究——以安徽为例  

The Study on Inter-provincial Flow of Population Driven by Economic Factors——Based on a Case Study of Anhui Province

作　　者：易斌[1] 翟国方[1] 丁琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2013年第12期39-42,共4页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428506);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071325)

摘　　要：安徽省人口跨省流动具有规模大、流向集中、各研究单元人口省际净流出规模和比重差异明显的特点。文章利用安徽省2001-2012年以县(地级市区)为单元的面板数据,以各研究单元净流出率为因变量,以流出地和流入地人均GDP比值为自变量,利用回归分析方法构建定量模型。研究表明:两者呈指数递减关系,随着流出地和流入地人均GDP比值升高,各研究单元净流出率呈指数趋势下降;利用历史分析方法发现2001年、2004年、2009年、2012年回归系数绝对值在下降,表明随着时间推移,人口流动对经济因子的敏感性在降低;通过横断面分析发现经济欠发达的皖北地区人口流动对经济因子的敏感性大于经济发达的皖南地区。研究还表明人口流动是区域发展差距导致,从财政、土地、基础设施、税收、管理服务方面创造承接转移产业和发展内生产业的积极条件,是提高发展中地区经济发展水平,留住发展要素,吸引人口回流的重要途径。Using the panel data of Anhui Province from 2001 to 2012 on the spatial level of county （County-level district or city） to analyze, it is found that the net population outflow of each unit is not only affected by population base, but also by the difference in net outflow per capita. The paper does regression analysis using the per capita net outflow of each unit as the dependent variable and the GDP ratio of outflow area to inflow area as independent variable. It is fimnd through the analysis： the net outflow per capita of each unit and the ratio of GDP per capita between outflow area and inflow area are ex- ponentially related, with the ratio of GDP per capita between outflow region and inflow region increased, the net outflow per capita decreased exponentially, the historical analysis using 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2012 data shows that the absolute value of the regression coefficients decline, which indicates that the sensitivity of economic factors on population movement is de- creasing, the Cross-section analysis shows that the sensitivity of economic factors＇ impact on migration is stronger in north- ern Anhui where the economy is not good as that in southern Anhui. This study shows that population movement is the re- sponse of labor force to the regional development gap. The important measure are, which aim to improve economic develop- ment, retain development factors and attract people back, to create favorable conditions in finance, land, infrastructure, taxa- tion and services.

关 键 词：流动人口 省际流动 人均GDP 安徽省 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]