我国钢铁产业碳减排LEAP模型情景研究  

A Study on Carbon Emission Reduction of China's Iron & Steel Industry Using LEAP Model

作　　者：何枫[1] 徐晓宁[1] 王学艳[1] 魏文耀 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2013年第12期89-92,134,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"减量化与低碳双重约束下我国高能耗制造企业技术效率评价与提升研究"(71272160);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"循环经济与低碳约束下我国高能耗制造业效率优化研究"(NCET-12-0772);国家社科基金重大项目"基于碳减排的产业有序转移和区域协调发展研究"(1282D070);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"循环经济减量化原则下我国制造企业效率评价理论与方法及其在钢铁产业中的应用"(FRF-TP-09-022A)

摘　　要：文章借助长期能源规划软件LEAP软件,采用定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法模拟四种基本情景下我国钢铁产业的能源消费总量和CO2排放总量。模拟结果表明,第一,在影响碳排放的诸因素中,粗钢产量的增加是导致CO2排放量增加的主要因素,而能源效率的提高是CO2排放强度降低的重要因素;第二,中长期来看,我国钢铁产业仍然有相当的碳减排潜力,且实现钢铁产业减排的主要途径是产业结构调整和技术进步。这将有助于更加全面地认识我国钢铁产业未来节能减排的方向,同时可以为我国相关政策部门制定钢铁产业的相关政策提供切实可行的依据。This paper utilizes long-range energy alternatives planning system （LEAP） software to simulate the total energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in four basic scenarios through quantitative and qualitative analyses. The results show that, firstly, the increase of the crude steel output is the major factor which causes the increase of carbon dioxide emis- sion, the improvement of energy efficiency leads to the decrease of carbon dioxide emission; secondly, there is a relatively great potential tor China＇s iron ＆ steel industry to reduce its carbon dioxide emission in the long run, and reaching the emis- sion target of iron ＆ steel industry is based on industry structure adjustment and technical improvement. It will be helpful for us to be fully aware of the future direction of energy saving and emission reduction for China＇s steel ＆ steel industry. Meanwhile, it also provides practical basis for China＇s relevant policy-making sectors to enact realistic policies on the steel ＆ iron industry.

关 键 词：钢铁产业 LEAP模型 碳减排 

分 类 号：F407.31[经济管理—产业经济]