气候变化和人类活动对永定河流域径流变化影响定量研究  

Quantitative Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Yongding River Basin

作　　者：张利平[1] 于松延[1,2] 段尧彬[1] 闪丽洁 陈心池 徐宗学[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2013年第6期391-397,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279139);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB428406)

摘　　要：以永定河流域为研究对象,在对永定河流域1957—2010年降水、实际蒸发和气温实测资料进行趋势分析的基础上,建立SWAT模型,验证了还原径流的必要性,对气候变化和人类活动对永定河流域径流的影响进行了定量研究。结果表明:20世纪60、70年代为永定河流域的丰水期,80年代至今为枯水期。永定河流域80年代后的实测径流资料受气候变化和人类活动影响显著,需进行径流还原后才能保证径流资料的一致性。气候变化是80年代后期径流减少的主要原因,其贡献量约占总减少量的65.4%,人类活动的贡献量占34.6%,也是不容忽视的因素。As climate change and human activities have had a profound and lasting impact on the hydrologic progresses,it is urgent to assess and separate the responses of runoff to the two driving factors.In this study,the variations of precipitation,evaporation and temperature in the Yongding River basin were examined for over five decades in 1957-2010.The results show that it is a wet period during the 1960s and 1970s but a dry period since 1980s.Climate change and human activities have significant influences on the runoff in this basin.The SWAT hydrological model was established to confirm the need of runoff restoration for the following research.With regard to the runoff quantitative responses to climate change and human activities,climate change is the dominant influence factor with a contribution of 65.4％.However,as the value of observed stream flow is almost equal to that caused by human activities,the driving factor of human activities cannot be neglected in future study.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 径流量 定量研究 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]