基于因果模糊聚类法预测覆岩裂隙带高度研究  

Study on prediction of fracture zone height of overburden rock bosed on causality fuzzy clustering method

作　　者：李波[1,2] 陈广平[1] 于正兴[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2013年第11期25-29,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家科技重大专项项目(2011ZX05040-001);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK09B01)

摘　　要：为了研究不同采高、煤层倾角、岩石抗压强度、岩层结构、采空区斜长、埋深等因素影响下采空区覆岩裂隙带高度发育规律,对收集的实测数据进行因果模糊聚类分类、分析,对各个类别,代入裂隙带高度接近均值的实测数据运算,获得各个因素对裂隙带高度影响合适的权重,进而建立对应的特征模糊集,并构造对应的三角模糊数,最终建立模糊预测模型。通过案例分析对模糊预测模型进行了验证,结果表明其误差范围为0.83-2.70m,满足工程应用的精度需求。In order to study the height of fracture zone under the influence of factors such as different mining height, coal seam dip angle, rock compressive strength, strata structure, goaf diagonal length, and buried depth, the fuzzy mathematics was proposed to classify and analyze the measured data by causality fuzzy clustering method . For different categories , effect weight of different factors which affect the height of fracture zone were obtained through calculating measured data that was closed to mean value .And then , the corresponding Triangular Fuzzy Number was constructed .Finally, a fuzzy mathematical model of predicting was established .The causal model was validated with experimental data and the error range was 0.83m-2.70m, which can meet the demand of the preci-sion for the engineering application .

关 键 词：裂隙带高度 因果模糊聚类 模糊预测 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD8[矿业工程—矿山开采]