巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应下购买力平价模型在中美汇率应用中的评估  

Assessment of adjusted purchasing power parity model from Balassa-Samuelson effects for China Yuan/U.S.Dollar

作　　者：舒荆阳 林之豪 

机构地区：[1]美国加州大学戴维斯分校,加利福利亚州戴维斯市95618 [2]中国人民大学信息学院,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《武汉工程大学学报》2013年第11期69-76,共8页Journal of Wuhan Institute of Technology

摘　　要：为了评估巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应下的购买力平价模型,选择人民币和美元作为目标货币.首先在该效应的基本假设下对模型进行了推导,得出了以劳动生产力和贸易品消费权重等经济变量表示的表达式.在获取相关数据后,以2005年作为基年,对人民币实际均衡汇率进行了估算,通过对实际均衡汇率的估算值与真实值的比较,对模型的适用性做出了初步判断.而后,利用简单线性回归的手段对结果进行了更深入的检验和分析,得出了该模型在此特殊情形下不适用的结论.最后进一步指出了模型内生假设、中美居民消费习惯以及政府干涉等可能导致模型不适用的因素.To examine the adjusted purchasing power parity model for Balassa-Samuelson effects,we choose China Yuan and U.S.Dollar as target currencies.Based on five assumptions in BalassaSamuelson effect,we firstly derive a simplified formula for real exchange rate expressed by economics variables such as labor productivity and the expenditure share of non-traded goods.Choosing 2005 as a base year,we estimate the real exchange rate of China Yuan and reach a preliminary diagnostic by comparing estimated values with real equilibrium exchange rates.Simple linear regression method is adopted,and we conclude that this model does not hold in this specific case.In the final part,we point out four drawbacks of this model,which are innate flaws in its assumptions,disagreements in consumption patterns between Chinese and the U.S.citizens,and government interventions,etc.

关 键 词：实际均衡汇率模型 人民币汇率 修正购买力平价模型 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]