基于干旱综合指数的模糊信息分配法的农业干旱风险评估研究  

Study on the agricultural drought risk assessment based on the fuzzy information distribution method of drought composite index

作　　者：康永辉[1,2] 解建仓[1] 黄伟军[3] 王宝红[3] 杨云川[4] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学,陕西西安710048 [2]广西壮族自治区水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西南宁530023 [3]广西水利电力职业技术学院,广西南宁530023 [4]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2013年第6期174-180,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50979088);广西高校优秀人才资助计划(桂教人[2009]62号)

摘　　要：影响农业干旱的因素复杂，而因素之间存在较大的随机性和模糊性。本研究采用模糊线性信息分配方法，以干燥度指数和有效降水指数相结合的综合干旱指标数据系列寻找概率估计分布函数，以广西田东县为例对农业干旱风险进行评估，并与采用连续无雨日数指标的常规概率统计分析法评估进行了对比。研究结果表明：田东县的春、秋季节农业干旱几乎年年发生，中、重度干旱3～5年可能会发生1次。干旱风险概率分别为冬季69．79％，春季72．78％，夏季5．79％，秋季80．50％。基于干旱综合指数的模糊信息分配法比连续无雨日数采用概率统计分析法进行农业干旱风险评估更有效可靠，更能反映干旱实际情况，是一种行之有效、简单实用的方法。The factors effecting agricultural drought are complex ,and exist greater randomness and fuzziness be-tween the factors .The fuzzy linear information distribution method has been adopted in this study,to find out the proba-bility estimate distribution function by the comprehensive drought index data series combined with the dryness degree in-dex and effective precipitation index .Taken the Tiandong County in Guangxi Province as for the example,carried out the agricultural drought risk assessment,compared with the assessment results obtained by the conventional probability statis-tics analysis method as continuous rainless days index .The research results shown that in the seasons of spring and au-tumn,the agricultural drought occured almost every year in Tiandong County,the middle or severe drought may be oc-cured once in every 3 to 5 years .The drought risk probability was 69 .79%in winter,72 .78%in spring,5 .79%in summer and 80 .50% in autumn,respectively .The conclusion is that：For agricultural drought risk assessment,the fuzzy information distribution method based on drought composite index is more efficient and reliable,which can reflect the actual situation of drought better than the continuous rainless days index of conventional probability statistics analysis method .So it is an effective,simple and practical method .

关 键 词：干旱风险评估 模糊线性信息分配 干旱综合指数 连续无雨日数 概率统计分析 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]