气候变化对血吸虫病与疟疾传播影响的适应政策指标的建立  

Establishment of Policy Indicators of Adaptation to the Impact of Climate Change on the Transmission of Schistosomiasis and Malaria in China

作　　者：钱颖骏[1] 李石柱[1] 徐俊芳[1,2] 张丽[1] 付青[1] 周晓农[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,世界卫生组织疟疾、血吸虫病和丝虫病合作中心,上海200025 [2]湖北省荆门市疾病预防控制中心,荆门448000

出　　处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》2013年第6期433-437,共5页Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases

基　　金：科技部重大支撑专项(No.2007BAC03A02);国家传染病科技重大专项(No.2012ZX10004220,2008ZX100042011)~~

摘　　要：目的以血吸虫病、疟疾为例,建立适应气候变化的防治应对策略和评价指标框架,为制定、评价气候变化影响下的媒传疾病防治策略提供依据。方法利用文献综述筛选初级指标,以血吸虫病和疟疾为例,应用德尔菲法设计问卷表,并对22名从事血吸虫病防治、19名从事疟疾防治和科研工作的专家进行了两轮问卷调查,从而建立适应气候变化的适应政策指标。计算指标统计量并归一化处理,获得各级指标权重,并计算组合权重。结果共发放问卷41份,有效问卷38份,应答率为92.7%。经2轮调查,建立了适应气候变化的政策指标体系,由疾病监测、科学研究、疾病干预和适应气候变化等4个一级指标,以及25个血吸虫病的、21个疟疾的二级指标构成。在一级指标中,专家一致认为疾病监测的权重最高(0.32);在二级指标中,两组调查均以媒介监测的权重最高。结论通过专家调查方法构建的气候变化适应政策指标,具有实用性、普遍性和可操作性,可以为卫生部门制定适应气候变化政策提供重要参考。Objective To set up a framework of indicators for schistosomiasis and malaria to guide the formulation and evaluation of vector-borne disease control policies focusing on adaptation to the negative impact of climate change. Methods A 2-level indicator framework was set up on the basis of literature review, and Delphi method was applied to a total of 22 and 19 experts working on schistosomiasis and malaria, respectively. The result was analyzed to calculate the weight of various indicators. Results A total of 41 questionnaires was delivered, and 38 with valid response （92.7%）. The system included 4 indicators at first level, i.e. surveillance, scientific research, disease control and intervention, and adaptation capacity building, with 25 indicators for schistosomiasis and 21 for malaria at the second level. Among indicators at the first level, disease surveillance ranked first with a weight of 0.32. Among the indicators at the second level, vector monitoring scored the highest in terms of both schistosomiasis and malaria. Conclusion The indicators set up by Delphi method are practical,universal and effective ones using in the field, which is also useful to technically support the establishment of adaptation to climate change in the field of public health.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候变化适应 血吸虫病 疟疾 媒传疾病 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：R183.5[医药卫生—流行病学]