基于经验分布假设的风电功率预测误差分析  

Analysis on wind power prediction errors based on empirical distribution hypothesis

作　　者：马淑清[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学交通学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《山西建筑》2013年第36期136-138,共3页Shanxi Architecture

摘　　要：以风电功率预测误差为研究对象,通过引入预测误差经验分布假设,实现对风电功率预测误差分布的描述,并根据预测误差时间序列高阶自回归(AR)模型对未来预测误差进行估计,以误差本身作为预测对象实现对原预测的修正,从而为确定预测结果置信度及预测结果修正奠定基础,算例结果验证了所提算法的适用性和有效性。Taking the wind power prediction errors as the research object, through the introduction of prediction error experience distribution as- sumptions, described the wind power prediction errors distribution, and according to high order autoregressive （AR） model of prediction error time series to estimate the future prediction errors, taking the error itself as forecasting object to modify the original prediction, so as to lay foun- dation for determining forecasting results confidence degree and prediction results amendment, the numerical results showed that the applicable and effective of proposed algorithm.

关 键 词：功率预测误差 经验分布 非参假设 概率预测 

分 类 号：TU856[建筑科学]