热带气旋环境场相似检索方法的对比分析  

Study on Similarity Retrieval Method for Ambient Field of Tropical Cyclones

作　　者：鲁小琴[1] 余晖[1] 赵兵科[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《气象》2013年第12期1609-1615,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40921160381);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006008);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421501);地理信息科学教育部重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(KLGIS2012A062)共同资助

摘　　要：比较了欧氏距离、相似离度、相似系数、相关系数及最优相似系数等作为气象格点场相似性度量的适用性,结果发现以"距离"为主的算法无法准确地反映环境场中的一些特定系统的位置和强度,相似检索效果较差;而相似离度、相似系数、相关系数及最优相似系数可分别考虑两个场之间的形状和强度、空间分布及变化趋势,能找到较相似的场,可供业务参考。通过将不同指标检索列的相似环境场的演变对热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)路径的影响量引入到TC路径预报中,检验其业务应用效果,发现单纯移向的预报效果好于路径预报,路径预报中相似离度的效果稍好于其他方法,而移向预报中最优系数法最好。另通过相似环境场检索,能找到由相似环境场所对应的相似历史TC,并依据不同度量性指标得到一个历史相似TC集,为台风业务、科研提供参考。In this paper the suitability of Euclidean distance, similar disparity, similarity coefficient, correlation coefficient and best similarity coefficient used as a similarity measure in meteorological grid dataset is discussed. The results show that some special systems＇ position and intensity cannot be expressed correctly by distance algorithm. But using＇similar disparity, similarity coefficient, correlation coefficient and best similarity coefficient, two meteorological grid datasets＇ spatial distribution and the change trend are con- sidered separately, so the similar ambient field can be found in the long history dataset, which can be applied in operation. In order to evaluate the similarity measures＇ operational application, the similar ambient field corresponding to tropical cyclone （TC） track＇s motion quantity is referenced in current source TC track forecast. The results show that 24 h moving direction forecast accuracy is better than that of 24 h track forecast and the similar disparity is better than other algorithm in track forecast, but the best similarity coefficient is better than other algorithm in moving direction forecast. By the query of similar ambient field, a similar TC ensemble corresponding to similar ambient field is found, which can be referenced in TC operational, forecast or research.

关 键 词：环境场相似 相似度量指标 相似热带气旋 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]