基于多尺度标准化降水指数的陕西苹果主产区气象干旱分析  

Drought Analysis Based on Multi-Scale Standardized Precipitation Index of Apple Production Area in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：王景红[1] 张勇[1] 刘璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省经济作物气象服务台,西安710014

出　　处：《气象》2013年第12期1656-1662,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：2011年中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-4)资助

摘　　要：利用陕西省30个苹果基地县气象站1961—2010年50年月降水资料,计算陕西苹果主产区3、6、9和12个月各尺度的标准化降水指数SPI_3、SPI_6、SPI_9和SPI_(12)。结果表明陕西苹果主产区年SPI_(12)、春夏秋SPI_9以及秋季SPI_3整体呈线性下降趋势(P<0.05),总体趋于干旱,且干旱强度有所加重。陕西苹果主产区轻度、中度、重度和极度气象干旱发生频率分别为16%、6%、4%和0%。使用克里格插值法绘制1961—2010年陕西苹果主产区年气象干旱频率分布图,其分布表现为自南向北隔分布且关中果区干旱频率最高;春夏秋气象干旱频率分布上表现与年气象干旱频率近似;冬春气象干旱频率分布上大体表现为南南高北低,东西中间低两边高,春夏气象干旱频率分布在东西南北上均大体表现为中间高两边低;季节气象干旱频率分布表现不一,总体上除春季关中果区气象干旱频率最高外,其余季节均为渭北东部果区气象干旱频率最高。加之陕西苹果基地县中76.4%的苹果园不具备灌溉条件,故该研究对建立具有针对性的防旱抗旱措施及应急预案均具有重要意义。By using monthly precipitation data of 30 meteorological stations within the apple production area in Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2010, the standardized precipitation index SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 were calculated. Results show that annual SPI12, spring-summer-autumn SPI9 and autumn SPI3 have a significant linear downward trend （P〈0.05） and drought intensity tends to increase. The frequency of light drought, mild drought, severe drought and extreme drought in the study area are 16%, 6%, 4% and 0 % correspondingly. Kriging interpolation method is used to draw drought frequency distribution map based on SPI value of the stations in the study area. The spatial distribution of annual drought frequency shows that four high drought frequency areas distribute with certain intervals from south to north and the drought frequency in Guanzhong Area is the highest. The spatial distribution of spring-summer-autumn drought frequency has a similar regulation with the frequency of annual drought. The distribution of winter-spring drought frequency generally shows the trend of being higher in south than in north. The distribution of winter-spring drought frequency shows that the frequency in middle is higher than in the both sides. The drought frequency in Guanzhong Area is the highest in spring, while that in the east of Weibei Area is the highest in the other seasons. In addition, 76.4% apple orchards do not have irrigation facilities, so this research is of some significance for establishing targeted drought-relief measures and emergency preplans.

关 键 词：陕西苹果 标准化降水指数 气象干旱分析 突变检验 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]