1951-2009年中国低云量的时空特征及其影响因素  

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Influence Factors of Low Cloud Amount over China in 1951-2009

作　　者：刘引鸽[1,2] 王宁练[1] 武小波[1] 郭忠明[1] 贺建桥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]宝鸡文理学院地理科学与环境工程系灾害监测与机理模拟陕西省重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《高原气象》2013年第6期1608-1616,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"973"(2010CB951400);国家自然科学基金项目(40930526);陕西省教育厅项目(09JS072)

摘　　要：利用中国360个地面站月低云量观测资料,采用线性倾向估计、GIS插值和滑动t检验,分析了中国低云量的时空分布特征及变化趋势,探讨了气候要素与低云量变化关系。结果表明,随纬度增加低云量减少,低云量最多区域位于云贵川地区,北方干旱地区云量最少。中国年平均低云量总体上呈减少趋势,递减率约为0.3%·(10a)-1。低云量的年代际、季节和区域性变化差异较大。干旱区、半干旱区、湿润区、东北区、青藏高原区以及西南区年平均低云量变化率分别为-0.18,-1.5,-0.19,0.25,-1.20和-0.37%·(10a)-1。相关分析表明,低云量与降水量、相对湿度、最大积雪深度之间呈正相关,与蒸发量和温度之间呈负相关,低云量变化滞后于太阳活动周期,但不同区域低云量变化与气候要素之间的关系差异较大,这些研究为气候变化预测提供了参考依据。Based on the surface monthly low cloud amount observation data of 360 surface stations in China in 1951-2009, and using GIS interpolation and t-test methods, the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distributions of the low cloud amount were analyzed, and relationships of other climate factors and low cloud amount were discussed. Using the linear tendency estimate methods, the climatic trends of the low cloud amount were studied. The results show that the annual average low cloud amount in China decrease with the latitude increasing, while the cloudy regions locate in Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou regions, and the less low cloud regions are locate in the northern drought region. The average low cloud amount overall are decreasing at rate of about 0.3% ·（10a）-1, moreover there are the significant differences in the decadal, seasonal and regional variations. In the arid area, semi-arid area, moist area, Northeast area, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Southwest area, the average change rates of low cloud amount are -0.18, -1.5, -0.19, 0.25, -1.20 and -0.37%·（10a）-1, respectively. Correlation analysis show that there is a positive correlation among low cloud cover and precipitation, relative humidity, the maximum snow depth, and negative correlation between evaporation and temperature; low cloud amount change lags the solar activity cycle, but the difference between different areas of low cloud amount change and climate factor is larger, which provide the basis for the projections of climate change.

关 键 词：低云量 时空分布 影响因素 

分 类 号：P426.53[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]