湿Q矢量释用技术的改进研究  

Study on Improvement of Moist QVector Interpretation Technique

作　　者：岳彩军[1] 李佳[1] 陈佩燕[1] 徐同[1] 王晓峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《高原气象》2013年第6期1617-1625,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40875025;40875030;40775033;40921160381;41175050);上海市自然科学基金项目(08ZR1422900);中国气象局2009年气象新技术推广重点项目(CMATG2009Z01);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306012)

摘　　要：利用包含大尺度稳定凝结潜热和对流凝结潜热信息的改进的湿Q矢量, 同时考虑地形抬升和地表摩擦作用, 完成对湿Q矢量释用技术的改进研究。将改进后的湿Q矢量释用（QMVIP）技术应用于华东区域中尺度模式（基于WRF V3.1, 简称WRF模式）, 并针对2010年6－9月汛期, 统计检验了QMVIP技术定量降水预报（QPF）效果, 且与WRF模式QPF效果进行了对比分析。结果表明, 0~72 h内, 对于0.1 mm·（24h）-1以上、 10.0 mm·（24h）-1以上及25.0 mm·（24h）-1以上降水预报来讲, TS评分分别提高了8.61%, 17.65%和29.57%; 正确率分别提高了8.44%, 6.49%和1.88%; 空报率分别下降了16.79%, 15.05%和10.74%; 漏报率分别下降了9.75%, 3.78%和10.48%； 对于50.0 mm·（24h）-1以上降水预报来讲, TS评分提高了65.04%, 二者平均正确率在0~72 h内几乎相同, 漏报率下降了12.94%, 空报率上升了12.67%。因此, 在总体上QMVIP技术较WRF模式改善了QPF效果。A kind of moist Q vector interpretation technique applied to quantitative precipitation forecast （QPF）, specifically, based on wind, temperature and dew-point temperature output by numerical prediction model, the vertical velocity can be obtained by solving the Omega equation whose forcing term is moist Q vector divergence, then the rain amount can be calculated by combining vapor, whereby dynamic interpretation method of QPF is produced. The moist Q vector interpretation technique will be improved by using the revised moist Q vector consisting of convective vapor condensational potential heating besides synoptic scale stable vapor condensational heating and by considering the roles of orographic lifting and surface friction. The modified moist Q vector interpretation technique （termed as QMVIP） is applied to Eastern China regional mesoscale numerical prediction model （which is based on WRF V3.1 and hereafter termed as WRF）, and the QPF effect of QMVIP is verified with comparison to the counterpart of WRF from June to September 2010. The results of forecast statistical verification in 72h show that the test scores （TSs） and forecast accuracy of QMVIP forecast are higher than the counterparts of the WRF in the context of the rain with intensity over 0.1 mm·（24h）-1, 10.0 mm·（24h）-1 and 25.0 mm·（24h）-1, on average by 8／^61%, 17.65% and 29.57% respectively for TSs and by 8.44%, 6.49% and 1.88% respectively for accuracy, meanwhile, the false-alarm and miss rates of QMVIP forecast are lower than those of the WRF, on average by 16.79%, 15.05% and 10.74% respectively for false-alarm and by 9.75%, 3／^78% and 10.48% respectively for miss-alarm. Furthermore, for the rain with intensity over 50.0 mm·（24h）-1, TS is increased by 65.04%, accuracy is almost the same and miss rates are decreased by 12.94%, while false-alarm is increased by 12.67%. Therefore, QMVIP technique improves QPF effect in comparison to WRF on the whole. Finally, the further perfection of QMVIP technique and the impr

关 键 词：湿Q矢量释用技术 改进的湿Q矢量 地形强迫作用 

分 类 号：P434.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]