北京地区冬季降水相态的识别判据研究  

Research on Discrimination Criterion of Precipitation Types in Beijing in Winter

作　　者：张琳娜[1] 郭锐[1] 曾剑[1] 卢冰[2] 段丽[3] 刘璐[1] 孙兆彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象台,北京100089 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [3]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2013年第6期1780-1786,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006010);北京市气象局预报员创新团队建设项目;国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目(2008BAC37B05);北京市气象局气象科技研发专项(2012BMBKYZX10)

摘　　要：利用1980年7月-2010年6月降水资料,统计分析了近31年北京地区冬季出现雨夹雪天气的季节特征,得出北京地区雨雪转换频发的季节主要集中在3月和11月。利用2000年冬季至2009年冬季日降水量资料,对近10年北京地区雨雪转换过渡季节的降水过程和临界值降水过程进行了分析,得到与雨雪转换关系密切的6种物理量:T850、T925、T1000、H1000-700、H1000-850和地面(2m温度、2m相对湿度的结合量),以及对应3种不同降水相态的不同阈值范围。利用统计分析结果设定了3种相态评分方法,经检验,每种物理量的判定指标在相态预报中的准确率都达到60%以上。将6个指标进行综合判定后准确率达到77%。这些降水相态综合判据可为北京地区高时空分辨率冬季降水相态的客观预报提供更加精确的参考。Using the precipitation data from July 1980 to June 2010, the rain and snow weathers in Beijing area in winter statistically were analyzed, the result shows that the snow conversion prone season in Beijing area is mainly in March and November. The precipitation process and critical value of precipitation process for the rain and snow transition season in Beijing area in the last 10 years were analyzed using the daily precipitation data in winter from 2000 to 2009, the snow and conversion of 6 kinds of physical quantity had closely relationship to be obtained ： T850, T925, T1000, H1000-700, H1000-850, and Tsurface-RHsurface, and their corresponding to three different precipitation phases of different threshold ranges. Using statistical analysis results of the set of three phase scoring methods, it is found the accuracy index of each physical quantity in the phase state prediction reaches more than 60% through the test. The accurate rate reaches more than 77% after integrated assess of 6 discrimination criteria. The precipitation phase synthetic criterion provides a reference for the objective forecast of high spatial and temporal resolutions of precipitation phase in Beijing winter.

关 键 词：降水相态 雨夹雪 识别判据 客观预报产品 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]