我国政府性债务扩张对金融稳定的影响——基于隐性债务视角  

The Impact of Government Debt Expansion on the Financial Stability:Analysis Based on Contingent Government Liabilities

作　　者：吴盼文[1] 曹协和[1] 肖毅[1] 李兴发[1] 鄢斗[1] 卢孔标[1] 郭凯[1] 丁攀[1] 徐璐[1] 王守贞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行海口中心支行,海南海口570105

出　　处：《金融研究》2013年第12期57-71,共15页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：2001—2012年，我国政府隐性债务规模呈快速扩张态势。国有企业、地方融资平台债务增加是政府隐性债务扩张的主导因素，这显示了经济增速放缓时期政府对经济的主导的特征。DSGE模型分析显示：我国政府性债务可持续性不断降低，财政风险极易传导至金融体系，不利金融稳定。减少政府对经济活动的过多干预是根本，维持经济可持续增长是增强政府性债务可持续性、防范主权债务风险的前提。短期内，亟需建立完善：有效的政府性债务约束框架和债务风险化解机制。During 2001 ~ 2012, the government debt in China demonstrated a rapid expansion. The debt accu- mulation of national enterprises and financing platforms of local government constitutes the dominant drivers of debt expansion, which reflected the increasing government intervention on economy at the period of slow eco- nomic growth. Further DSGE analysis shows that the sustainability of government debt wa,,~ deteriorating and the fiscal risk were converging in financial system. The fundamental measure to deal with theste problems is to less- en government＇s intervene on economy in long term. An effective government debt restriction and risk dispose system is necessary in short to mid -term.

关 键 词：政府性债务 或有风险 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F832