Whipple防护结构弹道极限方程的多指标修正  

Multiple Indicator Correction for Whipple Shield Ballistic Limit Equation

作　　者：贾光辉[1] 欧阳智江[1] 蒋辉[1] 李轩[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学宇航学院,北京100191

出　　处：《宇航学报》2013年第12期1651-1656,共6页Journal of Astronautics

基　　金：国家空间碎片专题项目(K020110-1/3/6)

摘　　要：为获得适用于国内情况的Whipple防护结构超高速弹道极限方程,研究了指标寻优方法,对国外的Christiansen改进型方程,以国内实验数据为依据进行多指标修正。结果发现:以预测概率型指标(包括总体预测率、安全预测率)和预测误差型指标(如:预测误差平方和)联合进行方程系数的逐级修正,可获得预测效果更好的修正方程。通过对低速段和高速段方程的整体系数进行修正,最终得到的新方程在国内107个实验数据上的总体预测率达到了89.7%,安全预测率则高达100%,分别较修正前的相应指标提高了10.3%和2.8%。In order to obtain the hypervelocity ballistic limit equation suiting for domestic Whipple shield, an indicator optimization method is studied. Based on domestic data, the modified Christiansen equation is revised by multi-indicators. The results show that, combining the predicted probability indicators （including totality predicted rate, safety predicted rate） with the prediction error indicator such as sum of squared prediction errors, the better predicted equation can be obtained by correcting the coefficients of the modified Cbristiansen equation step-by-step. By correcting the coefficients of ballistic region and hypervelocity region, the new equation＇s totality predicted rate achieves 89.7% and safety predicted rate reaches up to 100% for 107 domestic experimental data. Relative to the modified Christiansen equation, the indicators increase by 10.3% and 2.8% , respectively.

关 键 词：WHIPPLE防护结构 弹道极限方程 总体预测率 安全预测率 预测误差平方和 

分 类 号：V423.43[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]