气候变暖背景下高温胁迫对中国小麦产量的影响  

Impacts of heat stress on wheat yield due to climatic warming in China

作　　者：杨绚[1] 汤绪[2] 陈葆德[3] 田展[4] 钟洪麟[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]上海市气象局,上海200030 [3]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [4]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2013年第12期1771-1779,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371110;70933005);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201330);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX12_0495)

摘　　要：在小麦生长过程中生殖阶段对高温较敏感,尤其在开花期前后如遇短暂的高温天气,产量会显著下降。本文基于区域气候模式PRECIS在IPCC SRES A1B情景下2001-2090年气候预估数据,运用CERES-Wheat模型,对中国6个代表站点的小麦产量受高温的影响设计了敏感性试验,计算高温胁迫强度指数,预估了中国未来小麦产量易受高温胁迫威胁的空间分布。结果表明,开花前期和后期小麦产量对高温的响应不同。开花前期为小麦产量受高温影响最重要的敏感时期,在开花前期遭遇短暂的高温天气(单日最高气温大于32℃)就会导致产量的剧烈下降,并且当单日高温发生的越接近开花期,产量的损失越严重。灌浆期小麦遇到极端高温或者连续性的极端高温产量会有下降,并且灌浆期前期比后期对高温更敏感。CERES-Wheat模型在模拟小麦灌浆期对高温反应的敏感性较弱。中国小麦生产受高温胁迫影响较严重的地区主要位于中高纬地区,即新疆、河套和东北地区,并且受气候变暖的影响,高温敏感期高温胁迫的强度和范围均会进一步扩大。气候变暖导致高温胁迫强度增强,必然提高未来小麦减产的风险。Yield losses caused by heat stress are particularly severe when high temperatures occur concomitantly with the reproductive period of wheat. The stages most sensitive to, and adversely affected by, high temperature stress for wheat yield, so called the thermal sensitivity period, are the ones prior to flowering and during flower- ing. Temperatures that exceed thresholds throughout the thermal sensitivity period are calculated as the value of heat stress intensity. In addition, we will experience greater climate variability characterized by increased fre- quency of short periods of extreme climate events, including temperature stress. In this report, PRECIS regional climate modeling system is used to project the future climate in 2001-2090. Based on CERES-Wheat model, ex- periments on the sensitivity of wheat yield to maximum temperature in thermal sensitivity periods are conducted at six representative stations in China. High temperature stress intensity index is calculated and spatial distribu- tion of heat stress on China＇s wheat in the future is estimated. The results show that pre-flowering, flowering, and post-flowering stages are sensitive to heat stress, however, with varying degrees of sensitivity. Pre-flower- ing and anthesis stages are relatively more sensitive to high temperature, compared to post-flowering stage. But it is difficult to design an experiment to simulate extremely high temperatures at varying degrees for a long time period. Short periods of high temperature （single-day high temperature greater than 32℃） in pre-flowering and flowering stages would seriously reduce the wheat yield. The closer the period in which high temperatures occur is to anthesis, the greater the yield losses are. High temperature stress during flowering reduces the ability of pol- len to germinate as well as the rate of pollen tube growth. These negative effects disrupt fertilization and reduce grain numbers. However, yield losses during post-flowering stages were mainly due to decreases in grain weight. Early

关 键 词：高温胁迫 气候变化 小麦产量 高温敏感期 中国 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] S162.53