中国沿海地区经济与海洋环境污染情景分析——基于联立方程技术的分析方法  

The scenario analysis of China's coastal marine economy and environment pollution based on simultaneous equations technology

作　　者：王光升[1] 谭映宇[2] 石洪源[1] 徐智昕 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266100 [2]浙江省环境保护科学设计研究院,浙江杭州310007

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2013年第6期157-163,共7页Chinese Fisheries Economics

摘　　要：联立方程是分析经济与环境关系的一种行之有效的方法。本文以三要素生产函数和对数线性三次环境库兹涅茨曲线为主体,构建了海洋环境污染与沿海地区经济的联立方程,估算了联立方程系数。在此基础上运用情景分析技术,以环保投入和产业结构为冲击变量,分别对模型进行了动态冲击分析。通过分析得到,渤黄海地区的海洋环境污染比较严重,南海地区的海洋环境污染状况正在恶化,且环保投入变动和产业结构变动对海洋经济-环境系统影响趋势一致。Simultaneous equations is an effective method to analyze the relationship between economy and environment. This article using the three elements of the production function and logarithmic linear three main environmental Kuznets curve constructs simultaneous equations between marine environmental pollution and coastal economy, and estimate the coefficients. On this basis, using scenario analysis technique, taking environmental protection investment and industrial structure as the impact variables, the article carries out the dynamic impact analysis for the model. Through analysis, Bo Hai and Yellow Sea region have more serious environmental pollution. Pollution of the marine environment in the South China Sea situation is deteriorating, and the changes in environmental protection investment and industrial structure have the same affect trend on marine economic - environmental systems.

关 键 词：联立方程 沿海地区经济 海洋环境污染 情景分析 

分 类 号：F326.405[经济管理—产业经济]