基于季节性模型的长期降水预测及预报检验  被引量:2

The Long-term Prediction and Verification of Rainfall Based on the seasonal Model

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作  者:郑小华[1] 杜莉丽[1] 

机构地区:[1]陕西省气象局减灾服务中心,陕西西安710015

出  处:《安徽农业科学》2013年第28期11454-11455,11566,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基  金:国家重大科学研究计划"973"项目(2012CB956204);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-4)

摘  要:应用季节交乘趋势模型进行长期降水预测,对陕西的8个国家基准站进行了近6年逐月的降水预测,并运用中国气象局降水评分办法进行了预测检验。结果表明,近6年预测年降水评分均高于主观评分,是一种具有较好的应用前景的预测模型,建立预报水平平稳,可以广泛地应用于长期降水预报。The long-term prediction of rainfall was conducted by using seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, the monthly precipitation of eight national basic observatory of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was forecasted, and these results were checked by using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The average scoring of recent six year precipitation is higher than that made by profes- sional forecaster, so this model have a good prospect of application, the level of making prediction is steady, it can be widely used in long-term prediction.

关 键 词:季节交乘模型 长期降水预测 预报检验 

分 类 号:S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]

 

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