An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners  

作　　者：Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary Naoyuki Yoshino Ghahraman Abdoli Asadollah Farzinvash 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan [2]The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Tokyo 104-0054, Japan [3]Faculty of Economics, University ofTehran, Tehran 141556445, Iran

出　　处：《Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities》2013年第4期571-591,共21页中国高等学校学术文摘·经济学（英文版）

摘　　要：This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers （here, Iran and Russia） benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers （here, Iran and Russia） benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.

关 键 词：oil MACROECONOMIC trade linked case. Iran. Russia 

分 类 号：Q43[生物学—生理学] C30[社会学]