弱国何以在不对称博弈中力量倍增--基于朝核问题六方会谈的分析  

How Weak States Enhance their Power through Asymmetric Competition:An Analysis Base on The Korean Nuclear Issue and the Six Party Talks

作　　者：程晓勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2013年第6期52-69,151-152,共18页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“当代国际核政治与我国国家安全研究”(项目编号:11&ZD181)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在强国与弱国的互动过程中,由于双方实力不对称,强国拥有更大的力量和更多的资源来实现自己的目标。因此,通常情况下,国际政治博弈的常态是强国制定规则,弱国遵守规则。然而,在特定条件下,弱国能够在与强国的博弈中占据主动并取得胜利。在朝核问题上,六方会谈机制是解决该问题的重要政治途径并被各方寄以厚望。在六方会谈机制中,反对朝鲜进行核开发的国家拥有压倒性的力量优势,但截至目前,"反核"国家阵营并未实现令朝鲜放弃核计划的战略目标,而朝鲜却在六方会谈过程中获得了大量的经济、能源及粮食等人道主义援助,并保留了核计划。朝鲜在同美国等强国的政治博弈中"力量倍增"的原因在于:多边机制中利益格局的复杂性导致强国无法取得主导权,强国的实力优势被严重削弱;弱国与强国退出博弈后选择机会的不对称;"强国联盟"内部目标相互制衡且被弱国利用;弱国的政治意志和外交策略、技巧。In interaction between strong and weak states,because of asymmetries in capacities,strong states have more resources at their disposal to realize their objectives.Under certain circumstances though,weak states are able to gain a competitive advantage or even secure victory vis-d-vis strong states.This article explores this through the case of Korean Nuclear proliferation.The Six Party Talks are the key political mechanism for resolving the issue of nuclear weapons in the Koreas.A feature of the Six Party Talks is that the relevant parties which oppose a nuclear Korea have an absolute power advantage.Despite this advantage,to present this 'anti-nuclear' camp has not been able to use the Six Party Talks to realize their strategic objective of forcing North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.Instead,North Korea has obtained a large amount of economic,energy and nutrition assistance through the talks,while maintaining its nuclear program.Why is the DPRK able to 'enhance its power' in political competition with the United States and other stronger powers? Several reasons can be identified:complex interests within multilateral groupings result in strong states facing difficulties when it comes to securing a leadership role;such a framework seriously weakens the power advantage of the strong state;weak states and strong states face asymmetric options after withdrawing from a competitive game(in this case the Six Party Talks);differences in goals within an 'alliances of strong states' can be used to the advantage of weak states;the political will and diplomatic strategies of weak states can help them prevail.

关 键 词：朝鲜核危机 朝核问题 六方会谈 政治博弈 以弱胜强 

分 类 号：D731.2[政治法律—政治学] D815.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]