基于logit模型的城市高学历人群长期居留倾向研究  

The Tendency of Long-term Settlement for Population with Graduate and Above Education Base on Logit Model

作　　者：吕红军[1] 陈洋愉 褚祝杰[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学中国产业安全研究中心,北京100000 [2]大连理工大学公共管理与法学学院,辽宁大连116024 [3]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《人口学刊》2014年第1期105-112,共8页Population Journal

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅项目:基于政策制定视角的城市家庭固体废弃物管理的公众参与决策机制研究;黑龙江省博士后科研启动基金(LBH-Q12128);国家留学基金委项目:基于动态治理的城市政府生态责任研究;黑龙江省学位与研究生教育教学改革研究(JGXM-HLJ-2012033);国家自然科学基金(71101034)

摘　　要：我国城市政府普遍意识到高学历人群流入对于城市发展的重要意义,制定了一系列吸引人才的公共政策,但是对影响高学历人才长期居留因素认识不足,致使政策制定缺乏依据并且效果欠佳。国内外学者对于影响流动人口长期居留因素的研究较多,而从人口社会学特征视角,以流动人口中的高学历人才为研究对象的尚少。高学历流动人才作为流动人口的组成部分,其人口社会学特征,如文化程度、年龄、随迁家庭情况显著不同于其他群体,为此,在充分梳理相关文献的基础上,从人口社会学特征视角,采用调查问卷和直接访谈方式,使用离散选择模型中的Logit回归方法,对高学历人才长期居留影响因素(包括性别、年龄、学历、配偶户籍地和随迁家庭情况)进行了综合分析,以期加深对高学历人群长期居留影响因素的认识,为政府制定相关政策提供理论依据。The government has realized the significance of population inflow with graduate and above educa- tion level for urban development in cities and made a series of policies. But it has insufficient understand- ing on the factors impacting long-term settlement of these people, and the policy making is lack of founda- tion and has negative effectiveness. Domestic and foreign scholars have done many studies on factors im- pacting long-term settlement of floating population, but there are few studies on this group from the per- spective of soci-demographic characteristics. Population with graduate and above education level is an im- portant part of floating population, whose soci-demographic characteristics, such as education level, age and families＇ situation are quite different from other parts. We apply Logit Regression in discrete choice model to analyze factors that affect long-term settlement, including gender, age, education background, spouse＇ s place of domicile and families＇ situation, by analyzing concerned literatures substantially and the way of questionnaire and direct interview in order to know factors affecting long-term settlement of these people. The study can be the theoretical basis for the government to make concerned policies.

关 键 词：社会人口学特征 高学历人群 长期居留倾向 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]