埃及政治乱局演进趋势与埃及油气投资环境分析  

Evolution of the political chaos in Egypt and Egypt's oil and gas investment climate and trend

作　　者：褚王涛[1] 谢波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2013年第10期9-20,110,共12页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：埃及政治乱局经过了几个不同的演进阶段:1)在萌芽期,2004-2007年的"受够了运动"使威权统治首次遭遇挑战;2)在爆发期,2011年初总统穆巴拉克被迫下台,威权统治终结;3)在2011-2012年的过渡期,军队控制下的威权政治向宪政民主政治过渡;4)2012年6月30日穆尔西经民选就职总统后进入积怨期,穆尔西行为不当再度激起分裂;5)2013年7月是二次爆发期,总统穆尔西被军方强行罢免,过渡政府成立。自此,埃及再次进入权力过渡期,政局陷入混乱。但国际石油公司在埃及的生产没有受到政治乱局的影响。文章认为,埃及政治民主化进程不会逆转,不会发生内战,埃及未来的经济发展路线仍然是对外开放;埃及油气投资环境未来不会发生不利于国际石油公司的变化。建议中国石油公司在推进在埃及的油气投资时,考虑与欧美的石油公司进行投资合作,同时抓住时机,力争压低油气投资成本。Egypt's political chaos has gone through several stages of evolution:1) in 2004-2007 the hud of the protest movement first challenged authoritarian rule;2) in the outbreak period President Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down in early 2011.marking the end of authoritarian rule;3) in the 2011-2012 a transition period prevails from rule by force under the army toward transition to constitutional democratic political rule;1) on June 30, 2012 the inauguration of democratically elected President Mursi begins the rancor period when his misconduct reignites division; 5) July 2013 marks the second outbreak resulting in forcible removal of President Mursi by the military and in a transitional government.Since then.Egypt has re-entered a period of power transition and political chaos.However,production by international oil companies in Egypt has not been affected by the political chaos.The political democratization process in Egypt will not be reversed.There won't be a civil war.Egypt's economic development route is still open to the outside,and Egypt's oil and gas investment environment will slay conducive to international oil company trends.Chinese oil companies should promote investment in Egyptian oil and gas.while US and European oil companies consider continuing investment cooperation,and seize the opportunity while striving to drive down the cost of oil and gas investment.

关 键 词：埃及 政治乱局 演进 趋势 石油天然气 投资环境 投资建议 

分 类 号：D741.1[政治法律—政治学] F416.22[政治法律—中外政治制度]