区域声环境质量污染水平预测方法评价与对比研究  

Evaluation and Comparative Study of Prediction Methods of Regional Noise Environment Pollution Levels

作　　者：廉婕[1] 马民涛[1] 刘洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《四川环境》2013年第6期66-72,共7页Sichuan Environment

摘　　要：为完成北京市"十二五"城市区域的主要声污染防治工作目标,全面提高北京市声环境质量水平,科学预测区域内在"十二五"期间噪声污染水平和发展趋势,本文以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,运用指数平滑法与灰色模型GM(1,1)对所选定研究区域的噪声污染水平与发展趋势进行预测与分析。研究结果表明:运用指数平滑法与灰色模型对研究区域声环境噪声污染预测是可行的,北京市在"十二五"期间声环境质量水平符合《声环境质量标准》(GB3096-2008)中的一类区域标准。In order to complete the noise pollution prevention and control objectives of ＂The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂ in the city region of Beijing, comprehensively improve the level of sound environmental quality, and scientifically predict the noise pollution level and development trend in the ＂The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂ period, based on collected data and measured historical noise data, this article predicted and analyzed noise pollution level of selected research area by exponential smoothing method and grey model. The results showed that prediction of selected research area noise pollution level by exponential smoothing method and grey model was feasible. The sound environmental quality level of Beijing meet the first class of ＂sound environmental quality standards＂ （GB3096-2008） in the ＂Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂ period.

关 键 词：区域声环境质量 指数平滑法 灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 噪声污染水平 噪声预测. 

分 类 号：X827[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X839.1