地区犯罪规模影响因素的混沌分析  

A Chaotic Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Crime Scale

作　　者：陶卫东[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁警官高等专科学校信息系,辽宁大连116036

出　　处：《辽宁警专学报》2013年第6期63-67,共5页Journal of Liaoning Police Academy

基　　金：2012年公安部软科学项目(2012LLYJLNST096)

摘　　要：区域社会和经济存在与发展的因素对犯罪规模有着不同程度的影响。文章基于这一事实将警务效率、人均GDP、受教育状况、人口密度和基尼系数作为地区犯罪规模的评价因素,采用复回归方法建立了地区犯罪率模型,通过模糊动态聚类分析得到了影响犯罪规模各因素的混沌特征,从这种混沌优化的学习过程中确定了各个影响因素的权重,将它作为地区犯罪规模影响因素的程度。结果表明,警务效率对犯罪率的影响最大,其次是人口密度和受教育程度的影响。The factors concerning regional social and economic development affect crime scale in varying degrees. Based on this fact, the article takes policing efficiency, GDP per capita, education level, density of population and Gini coefficient as the evaluation factors of regional crime scale. The paper sets up a regional crime rate model by way of multiple regression method and obtains through fuzzy, dynamic and cluster analysis the chaotic characteristics of various factors affecting crime scale Finally, the study determines the weight of each influencing factor in the learning process of chaotic optimization and takes the weight as the influencing degree of the corresponding factor on regional crime scale. The results show that policing efficiency contributes the largest part to crime rate, followed by the density of population and education level.

关 键 词：犯罪规模 犯罪率模型 犯罪因素 权重分析 

分 类 号：D917.6[政治法律—法学]