基于理论模型与美国经验证据的城市增长序贯模式  

A study of sequential city growth pattern: Theoretical model and empirical evidence of U.S. urban system

作　　者：盛科荣[1] 孙威[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学商学院,淄博255012 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理学报》2013年第12期1632-1642,共11页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(10CJGZ32)~~

摘　　要：城市体系演化动态规律的研究正逐渐成为城市地理学研究的热点。基于新经济地理学理论模型和美国城市体系演化的实证案例,本文研究了城市增长的一般次序和城市体系规模结构演化的动态模式。研究表明,城市增长呈现序贯模式,即发展条件较好的城市率先增长,然后较低位序的城市依次成为增长最快的城市。研究还揭示了与城市序贯增长相伴生的系列特征:城市规模分布"初级平衡型—初级首位型—高级平衡型"的倒"U"型演化特征、城市规模分布持续的分层特征、上截尾城市增长的条件收敛性。本研究结论将加深学术界对城市化和城市体系规模结构演化规律的理解,还将在制定有效的城市化政策和编制科学的城市规划实践中得到广泛的应用。The dynamics of city growth and urban system evolution are attracting more attention in urban geography studies. Based on a theoretical model from new economic geography perspective and the empirical evidence of U.S. urban system evolution, this paper undertakes a thorough study of how cities develop and grow in a large country whose urban population is growing steadily over time. The results show that city growth follows a sequential pattern in the long run： cities with the highest market potential are the first to grow rapidly, and only when their growth rates slow down at some point does the city with second-highest market potential become the fastest-growing one, then the third one, and so on. This research also reveals three features of urban system evolution related to sequential city growth pattern. First, city size distribution evolves from primary balanced type to low-developed primate type and finally high-developed balanced type in an inverse ＂U＂-shaped pattern. Second, there exist lasting discontinuities, or gaps, between size classes. Third, the upper tail of city size distribution exhibits conditional convergence characteristics. The research can not only contribute to a better understanding of urbanization process and the evolution of city size distribution, but also be widely used in the effective policy making and scientific urban planning.

关 键 词：城市增长 序贯模式 城市规模分布 条件收敛 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济] F224