新疆阿勒泰地区冬季大到暴雪气候变化特征  

Heavy snowstorm characteristics of climatic change in winter in Altay Xinjiang

作　　者：庄晓翠[1] 李博渊 张林梅[1] 杨森[1] 白松竹[1] 王海岩 

机构地区：[1]新疆阿勒泰地区气象局,新疆阿勒泰836500 [2]新疆青河县气象局,新疆青河836200

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2013年第6期1013-1022,共10页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项"新疆北部致灾暴雪成因分析和预报技术研究"(GYHY201106007);气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究2010 CB951001

摘　　要：基于新疆阿勒泰地区7个观测站1961-2010年冬季逐日降水量资料，定义了大到暴雪特征量，并对其时间序列进行标准化，然后运用线性趋势、Cubic函数、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波变换、R/S分析等方法，研究了该区冬季大到暴雪的气候变化特征。结果表明：大到暴雪量对冬季降水总量的方差贡献较大。在气候分布上，大到暴雪特征量、冬季总降水量的大值区均位于北部东部，大值中心位于富蕴或阿勒泰站，方差贡献大值中心位于青河站；小值中心位于福海站。在年际尺度上，该区各特征量有7a的显著周期变化特征；在年代际尺度上，有13～15a、17～23a、28～29a的显著周期变化。在时间域上，大到暴雪量和频次在20世纪90年代之前以负距平为主，变化相对平稳，90年代之后以正距平为主，变化相对剧烈；大到暴雪强度60-70年代初、80年代中期到21世纪最初10a波动幅度较大，70年代中期到80年代初变化相对平稳。Cubic函数拟合表明，大到暴雪特征量在80年代末90年代初发生了由少到多的转型，但没有突变点。在空间域上，各年代大到暴雪量大值区所在范围比较稳定，位于北部东部，小值区出现在河谷平原；大值中心在60和90年代出现在富蕴站，其它年代出现在阿勒泰站；小值中心70年代出现在布尔津站，其它年代均出现在福海站；大到暴雪频次的变化与其不同的是大值中心90年代出现在青河站；大到暴雪强度在60和70年代大值中心位于阿勒泰站，80和90年代位于富蕴站，21世纪最初10a位于哈巴河站，大值区分布也较复杂。大到暴雪特征量全区及各站均呈增多趋势；大到暴雪量是阿勒泰和福海站、大到暴雪频次和强度是阿勒泰、福海、富蕴站没有通过显著性检验，其它均通过了显著性检验。R/S分析表明，在未来该地区大到暴雪特征量将逐渐转为减少的趋势�Based on the global warming background, this paper studied heavy snowstorm climate characteristics in the Ahay prefeture, revealed variation law of heavy snowstorm in this prefecture, and provided reference for guiding the region economy layout, disaster prevention and mitigation, blizzard disaster risk assessment. And at the same time, this paper provided the basis for the short-term climate prediction. It used the daily precipitation data of 1961-2010 winters at seven observation stations of the Ahay prefecture, defined the heavy snowstorm characteris tics, and standardized the time series. With the help of Linear Trend Method, Cubic function, Mann-Kendall muta tion testing, Morlet wavelet transform and R/S analysis, the heavy snowstorm characteristics of climatic change in winters.were studied. The results show that： the total rainfall of heavy snowstorm contributes great value to the vari ance of the total rainfall in winters. In the climatic distribution, the large value area of heavy snowstorm characteris tic quantity and the total rainfall in winters locates in its northern and eastern parts with the large value center laying at Fuyun or Ahay station, variance contribution value center at Qinghe station. Small value center locates at Fuhai station. On an inter annual scale, each characteristic quantity has 7 a periodic variation characteristics in this prefec ture; In view of the inter-decadal scale, significant periodic variations are 13-15 a, 17-23 a, and 28-29 a. In the time domain, rainfall and frequency of heavy snowstorm were characterized by negtive anomaly before the 1990s, change was relatively smooth, and by positive anomaly after the 1990s, and change was relatively acute. The heavy snowstorm intensity fluctuated greatly from 1960s to 1990s begining and from the mid-period of 1980s to the 2000s, the change in intensity was relatively smooth from the mid-period of the 1970s to the 1980s beginnig. The cubic function fitting shows that： The heavy snowstorm characteristics produced a type transf

关 键 词：新疆阿勒泰 冬季 大到暴雪 气候变化特征 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]