新疆农地利用碳排放时空差异及驱动机理研究  

Spatial-temporal differences and driving mechanism of agricultural land use carbon emission in Xinjiang

作　　者：苏洋[1] 马惠兰[1] 颜璐[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2013年第6期1162-1169,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71163041);自治区高校科研计划(XJEDU2010I27)

摘　　要：基于化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕、灌溉6个主要方面的碳源,测算了新疆1993-2010年及各地州2010年的农地利用碳排放量。结果表明:(1)新疆农地利用碳排量总体呈"快速-缓慢-快速"的三阶段增长特征,其碳排放强度变化轨迹与此基本一致;(2)各地州区域差异明显,昌吉回族州属碳排放量、碳排放强度"双高"型地区;乌鲁木齐等3地区属低碳排放量、高碳排放强度地区;塔城等四地区属高碳排放量、低碳排放强度地区;哈密等六地属碳排放量和碳排放强度"双低"型地区。同时,利用kaya恒等式对其驱动机理进行分解,得出农业经济发展水平是农地碳排放的最主要驱动因素;农业生产效率对农地碳排放具有较强抑制作用;而农业结构、农业劳动力规模在不同程度上推动农地碳排放,进而提出促进新疆农地碳减排的对策建议。This study is based on six major aspects of carbon source, including chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agri cultural films, agricultural diesel oil, plowing and irrigation, which measures the agricultural land use carbon emis sions in Xinjiang during 1993-2010, and every prefecture and city of Xinjing in 2010. The results shows as follows ： （ 1 ） In vertical perspective： the agricultural land use carbon emissions presents fast-slow-fast three-stage growth characteristics. From 1993 to 2010, the agricultural land use carbon emissions were increased from 94.79 ten thou sand tons to 293.47 ten thousand tons. the carbon emissions of chemical fertilizer is the main factor, accounting for over 55% of the Xinjiang agricultural land use carbon emissions. The intensity of agricultural land use carbon emis sions also presents fast-slow-fast three-stage growth characteristics. It has been increased from 316.47 kg/h㎡ in 1993 to 616.71 kg/h㎡ in 2010. （2） In lateral view： all state regional differences are significant. Changji Prefecture belongs to the double high＇type area-high carbon emission, high carbon emission intensity. Urumqi and other two prefectures are the type areas of low carbon emission, high carbon emission intensity. Tacheng and other two prefectures are the type areas of high carbon emission, low carbon emission intensity. Hami and other five prefectures are the double low type areas-low carbon emission, low carbon emission intensity. Further, by using the Kaya identi ty equation, the decomposed driving mechanism is worked out. The driving mechanism shows that： From 1994 to 2010, the level of agricultural economic development is the main driving factor that affects agricultural land use car bon emission, it has produced 226.20 ten thousand tons carbon increment, about 126% of carbon emissions incre ment. Meanwhile, the agricultural Structural factors and the size of the agricultural labor force factors have promoted agricultural carbon emissions in varying degrees. From 1994 to 2010, thes

关 键 词：农地碳排放 时空差异 驱动机理 Kaya恒等式 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]