江苏县域劳动生产率的空间关联与分异演化格局  

The Spatial Correlations and Deviations Evolution Pattern in Jiangsu County Labor Productivity

作　　者：柯文前[1] 陆玉麒[1] 俞肇元[1] 王晗[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,中国江苏南京210023

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第12期24-30,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071084);江苏省高校自然科学基金项目(12KJD170003);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ13_0398)

摘　　要：针对县域尺度生产率空间演化和影响要素相互作用关系分析的缺乏,综合ESDA和GWR模型研究江苏县域劳动生产率的空间关联和分异演化格局,结论如下:①ESDA探测分析表明,所有变量局部空间上存在高低集聚的南北分异格局,全局空间上具有自相关效应且除政府干预与劳动生产率为负相关外,其他变量均为正向相关关系,但相关程度变化趋势仍有差异;②劳动生产率不同类型区与变量可能的要素关系结构不同导致空间位置上的对应程度不同,基于GWR揭示了不同分布位置样本参数估计值存在方向性和数值大小差异,且随年份演进波动趋势与ESDA探测结果相同,由此验证了要素关系中潜在的空间关联和空间异质性;③各变量回归估计参数的演变特征揭示出,除信息化水平外,经济密度、政府干预、人均国内投资和对外开放程度对劳动生产率边际效应的影响均有往北部转移的态势,隐含着在空间关联效应下,欠发达的苏北和沿海等地劳动生产率或有追赶较发达苏南地区的趋势。The present research on the spatial evolution of county level labor productivity has focused less attention to the interaction relationship between the spatial pattern variable and its influencing factors. This paper combined with ESDA and GWR methods as tools to analysis the labor productivity spatial correlations and deviations evolution pattern. The conclusions are summarized as follows： （1） ESDA analysis results show that all variables has a high-low clustering deviation pattern in south and north, and in the overall space each variable has the spatial autoeorrelation, except informationalized level has negative correlation with labor productivity, other variables have positive correlation with labor productivity, but the tendency of the related degree is different. （2） The different type areas of labor productivity with variables probably different feature relations structure lead to the spatial location corresponding degree is different. The GWR reveals estimates parameters of samples in different quantile have directivity and numerical size differences, and the fluctuation trend is the same as ESDA detection result along with the evolution of years, which proves the potential spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity in the features relations. （3） Estimate parameters evolution characteristics of each variable shows, except informationlized level, the marginal effect impact on lab productivity of economic density, government intervention, per fiscal expenditure and outside open degree have transfer situation to north, which means under the spatial correlation, the labor productivity of northern Jiangsu and coastal regions may have a tendency to catch up southern Jiangsu.

关 键 词：劳动生产率 演化格局 空间关联 空间异质性 江苏省 

分 类 号：F242[经济管理—劳动经济]