基于灰色关联度模型的城市化滞后性定量分析  

Hysteresis Quantitative Analysis of Urbanization Based on Gray Correlation Degree Model

作　　者：陶建格[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中原工学院经济管理学院,中国河南郑州450007 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国北京100101

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第12期68-72,共5页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173248);中国博士后基金项目(2013M530712);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学优秀学者资助项目(2013-YXXZ-24);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队支持计划(2012-CXTD-12)

摘　　要：采用工业化率与城市化率作为工业化水平与城市化水平的衡量指标,分别从东、中、西部选取上海、湖北、内蒙作为对象,并结合全国平均水平,通过灰色系统分析方法探讨城市化与工业化的关系,计算其灰色绝对关联度,得出不同省份城市化滞后工业化的时间,并分析其原因。结论表明:我国城市化滞后于工业化程度为3年;就不同省份而言,选取的上海、湖北、内蒙滞后程度依次减弱。原因是东部外向型工业经济发达,国际城市体系为中国工业品提供了市场服务功能;西部地区外向型经济较弱,工业化与城市化发展较均衡,工业化带动城市化。In this paper, industrialization rate and urbanization rate are chose to measure the level of industrialization and urbanization, selecting Shanghai, Hubei, Inner Mongolia from eastern, central and western, combined with national average level, using the gray system analysis methods to investigate relationship between industrialization and urbanization, calculating the gray absolute correlation degree, to obtain the different provinces＇ lag time of urbanization to industrialization and analyze its causes. The study showed that： China＇ s lage time of urbanization to industrialization is 3 years; to different provinces, the hysteresis of Shanghai, Hubei and Inner Mongolia weakens successively. The reason is that eastern export-oriented industrial economy is developed, the international system providing market services to Chinese industrial product; while western export-oriented economy is weak, industrialization and urbanization are developing balanced, industrialization drives urbanization.

关 键 词：工业化 城市化 灰色关联度 滞后性 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]