信贷政策与房地产价格周期波动的实证研究  

A Relationship Study between Credit Policy and Real Estate Prices Cyclical Fluctuations

作　　者：张强[1] 曾江波[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2013年第12期8-12,共5页Financial Theory and Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目<财政政策和信贷政策与产业政策的协调配合研究>(12AZD035)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：运用MSIA-VAR模型实证分析1998—2013年间我国信贷政策与房地产价格周期的动态关系。研究表明:信贷政策与房地产价格存在双向影响,房价的周期波动显著呈现低速、中速及高速增长的3区制状态,进一步分析表明我国房地产增长存在非对称性,房地产业更易从低速增长区向高速增长区转换,且在中高速增长状态更趋稳定,持续时间也更长。分区制脉冲响应显示,在房价加速增长期银行信贷对房价影响显著,但这种影响存在一定滞后性。This paper researches the relationship between credit policy and real estate prices with M SIA-VAR model based on China＇ s monthly data from 1998：01 to 2013：06.This essay finds that credit policy and real estate prices affect each other, and they emerge three regimes significantly. Further studies showed China＇s real estate growth is provided with Asymmetry, Real estate is more easily from slow growth area into high growth areas, it is also more stable and longer lasting in the high growth area. Zoning impulse response shows, bank credit have significant influence in real estate prices, but some- times this effect was lag. This conclusion has practical significance when regulators use monetary and credit policy tools to control real estate prices.

关 键 词：信贷政策 房地产价格周期 MSVAR模型 分区制脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]