住房市场调控新政能够实现“居者有其屋”吗?——一个动态一般均衡的理论分析  

Will People Benefit from the New House Market Regulatory Policies?A Theoretical Study Based on a Lifecycle General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：朱国钟[1] 颜色[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2013年第4期103-126,共24页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社科青年基金(项目号:09CJL009);教育部人文社科研究青年基金(项目号:09YJC790012);北大光华-金光西部发展研究基金的资助

摘　　要：我们建立了一个包括买房和租房决策的DSGE模型,计算房价和房租的动态轨迹,分析六种住房调控政策的影响:提高贷款利率、提高首付比例、对新购房征收房产税、对存量房征收房产税、对小户型免税和对大户型征税。数值模拟发现,这些调控政策通过抑制住房消费来降低房价,把购房需求转化为租房需求,从而推高了房租。其中,对新购房征税的效果最小,只能轻微降低房价,却显著推高房租;而对存量房征税会对房价、地价和房租产生极大冲击。With a DSGE model that endogenizes both house sale market and rental market,we study six regulatory policies in China：raising mortgage rate,raising down payment ratio,taxing new houses,taxing all houses,waiving the tax of small houses,and taxing only big houses.We simulate the changes in house price,rental price,land price and optimal house quantity when these policies are implemented.We find that these policies lower house prices by inhibiting housing demand and raising rental prices.We also find that taxing big houses and new houses are the least effective.

关 键 词：住房调控 房价 房租 房产税 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]